Hold Onto Your Hat: What to Expect from the 2021 Hurricane Season
Tropical Storm Isaias spawned two tornadoes in South Jersey last August. Early this July, Tropical Storm Elsa had us “frozen” in the middle of the night when two more twisters dropped out of the clouds and touched down along the Jersey Shore.
It’s no wonder that many in South Jersey hope we can just “let it go” when it comes any additional tropical (or tornadic) troubles this year. Unfortunately, reality dictates otherwise, as we’ll wade through the ripe waters of the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season over the next few months.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active ever recorded. And 2021 initially picked up right where 2020 left off, with five named storms by early July – and, if forecasts are correct, many more to come. Meteorologists predict this year to be the sixth consecutive year of above-average activity in the Atlantic basin. And while there’s no guarantee that any of those storms will turn up the East Coast in our direction, a greater number of storms always leads to a greater chance of some sort of eventual trouble for someone.
And tropical trouble has become more common in the Atlantic over recent decades – so much so that the National Hurricane Center raised the number of storms we should expect to see in an “average” season, from 12 named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes) to 14, and from six hurricanes to seven. This year, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration is predicting 15 to 21 named storms, with seven to 10 of them becoming hurricanes and three to five of them intensifying into major hurricanes. But the old adage every year is that no matter how many storms develop, it only takes one to define a season.
For us last year, it was Isaias, a storm that reminded us that it’s not just wind and water when it comes to tropical systems. Yes, storm surge is typically our biggest concern here on the cape, and strong winds aren’t too far behind. But the intense spin associated with a landfalling tropical cyclone, even a weakening one, creates a perfect setup for brief but sometimes destructive tornadoes. An EF-1 tornado with 100 mph winds carved a path of damage across parts of Strathmere and Marmora last August. And then, less than one year later in a case of meteorological déjà vu, Tropical Storm Elsa spawned an EF-1 tornado on the Cape May County mainland around Woodbine, about 9 miles northwest of Seven Mile Beach, again with winds of 100 mph. It’s just another facet of hurricane season that these recent examples help bring to light.
After an initial frenzy of storms, we’ve enjoyed a midsummer lull through the second half of July and into early August. These lulls are not that uncommon, even in a busy season, and as nice as they are, it isn’t a sign that the Atlantic will continue its long slumber indefinitely. In fact, the middle of August is traditionally when the Atlantic Ocean starts to slowly simmer, eventually boiling over with a season peak in early-to-mid-September. The water temperatures aren’t as warm this year compared to last year throughout the tropics, but less wind shear and more tropical waves and moisture likely coming off of Africa will help contribute to higher-than-normal activity over the next few months.
While 2021 is primed to be another busy year, it likely won’t come close to breaking 2020’s unprecedented numbers, which are staggering: a most-ever 31 storms … 14 hurricanes … a record-tying seven major hurricanes … a record 11 landfalls in the United States. It was also the second (and last) season to ever use the Greek alphabet for naming storms. Each year has a traditional list of 21 names, which alternate between boy and girl names from A to Z, with the exceptions of Q, U, X, Y, and Z. After that list is exhausted, which has only happened twice, it is tradition to use the Greek alphabet. That was deemed confusing and less than ideal after 2020. Instead, another alternate list of traditional names is now in place, if ever needed.
So, we’ll hopefully just use our standard list for 2021, which began with Ana (to accompany Elsa, of course) and has several more real and fictional princesses on it: Grace, Kate, and Odette. If it is indeed a busy season and we get to 21 storms, we’ll get to the end of the list and Teresa, Victor, and Wanda. Unfortunately, while the skill in forecasting the number of storms continues to increase, determining where the storms will go must be tackled one storm at a time.
Here in Cape May County, we are most vulnerable to impacts from tropical systems from mid-August through mid-October. But Elsa, this year’s early-July tropical storm, and Sandy, our late-October hurricane in 2012, serve as reminders that the Atlantic hurricane season is six months long for good reason, running from June 1 through Nov. 30 each year with the traditional early-September peak.
HURRICANE CHECK LIST
There is a lot to do to get your family and your home prepared when a hurricane is coming. This check list is just a start!
1. Stay up to date on your risk. Hurricanes often happen near the coast, but not always.
2. Have a plan. Make sure everyone in your home knows and understands this plan. It should include where to move your car in case flooding is predicted, and where you can go if you need to leave your home.
3. Check your supplies. Check to make sure you have enough of everything you need in case you can’t make it to the store or you lose power for a few days. This list should include but isn’t limited to: medications, cleaning supplies, food, water, flashlights, batteries and pet supplies.
4. Pack a bag. Be prepared to leave quickly in the event that it is no longer safe to stay. Make sure you have all your medications, important documents, your driver’s license, cash, etc.
5. Know the evacuation routes. There are times when you have to leave immediately. Make sure you know what roads you are supposed to take and which ones to avoid in order for you to get quickly and safely out of town.
6. Those with disabilities or medical issues. If you might need extra help in the case of an emergency, prepare for it now.
7. Sign up for alerts and warnings. Download the FEMA app onto your smartphone and you can stay up-to-the-second with information in your area. Make sure you are signed up for all local alerts as well.
8. Prepare your home. Bring in outside furniture and anything that might blow away with strong winds.
9. Charge your electronics. If you lose electricity, you want your battery to be at full strength in case there is an emergency.
