Let It Snow? What to Expect from This Winter’s Weather
Expect the 2025-26 winter weather to be pretty similar to last winter’s. However, there’s enough support in the forecast to give snow lovers hope this season.
My Jersey Shore friends, it’s that time of the year again. Time for the winter forecast. With the sun setting by 5pm, holiday decorations and gifts ready to be bought at nearly every store, and sweatshirt weather during the day, snow season is around the corner.
Before we get into the winter forecast, there are a few ground rules.
I do not do my own winter forecasting. It takes a lot of time and research that begins in August and ends around Halloween. This forecast is a mix of some research I’ve done, and trusted sources, like Steve DiMartino of NY NJ PA Weather, a fellow Certified Digital Meteorologist.
Miles make the difference. In one storm, Avalon could be all rain, while Egg Harbor Township has 3 inches of snow and Asbury Park has a foot. This forecast is for the general shore area, not one particular house.
Average snowfall is meaningless at the shore area. Lower Township’s long-standing weather station averages 14.8 inches of snow, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. However, over the past three decades, 17 years had less than 5 inches of snow, and three have been more than triple the average.
The ocean, which keeps our fall warmer than the New Jersey Turnpike corridor, also keeps us milder during the winter. An onshore wind with a nor’easter will keep the lawns brown, not white. You really must go to northwestern New Jersey, the Poconos, and places north to be guaranteed a high “floor” of snow.
Still, the winter forecast is exciting. It’s the most popular outlook of the year. I love talking about it with you.
How did last year’s winter forecast do? Lower Township did have the most snow at the entire Jersey Shore; 20.5 inches of snow fell there. In fact, the only places in the state that were higher were northwest of Interstate 287, in the typically colder part of the state.
Otherwise, most of Atlantic, Cumberland and Cape May counties saw between 12 and 18 inches of snow.
Farther north, the rest of the shore only had 7 to 12 inches.
For last year’s forecast, I said: “It’s safe to say that we can expect fewer storms with a possibility of snow.” That was true. We average eight days with measurable snow in Lower Township. Last year, we had six.
The not-so-great forecast was the coastal flooding outlook. I wrote that a “near to slightly above average coastal flooding” was likely. Thank goodness this was wrong. The coastal flooding and beach erosion was nearly nonexistent.
I also wrote that temperatures would be “warmer than usual overall.” Turns out, our 39.4-degree average from December to March was right around the average of 39.1 degrees.
Quick Jersey Shore winter forecast: Expect a couple of lighter snow events (under 4 inches), with a better-than-average chance for bigger storms (4-8 inches). However, massive snow, more than a foot, is less likely than usual.
Temperatures should be about average when everything is said and done.
However, this should be due to big swings in temperatures averaging out to near average throughout the year. Four days of near 60-degree weather followed by four days of 30-degree weather is a strong possibility. Our first sustained cold shot looks to be at some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Expect more coastal storms than usual. At the risk of sounding wishy-washy, some will be mostly rain, some will be mostly snow.
Erosion and tidal flooding will be more of a quantity over quality (big issues) thing. However, with the beaches already damaged in spots, it’s a concern.
Jersey Shore winter forecast in more detail: The factors for this winter are largely driven by three factors:
Weak La Niña, or colder than average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Much warmer than average water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, off the United States West Coast.
Less than usual arctic ocean sea ice in North America.
You can’t start a winter forecast without looking at the state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. This explains whether water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are warmer or colder than average. We’re in La Niña, so it’s cooler than average.
However, only a weak La Niña is expected until February, according to NOAA. We may then go into a neutral state for the rest of the winter.
Either way, the point is La Niña favors a slightly cooler and drier winter.
The next two factors both support stormier than usual patterns for a winter. The relatively warm water off the West Coast supports a storm track right through the Mid-Atlantic. Storms during the winter love a clash of cold and mild and these lines up perfectly for our region to be the battleground.
Meanwhile, sea ice is well below average on the North American continent. Unless something crazy happens, it will stay this way. That opens the jet stream, the river of air about 30,000 feet high, which is also the storm track to look like a roller coaster, snaking south to north over the Eastern United States.
When the Jersey Shore is on the northern side, storms will be mostly snow. When the Jersey Shore is on the southern side, it’ll be mostly rain. Expect to see the classic 55 degrees and rain in Cape May with 30 degrees and snow in Trenton a few times.
It’s tempting to go above average for snow at the Jersey Shore given all of this, with one or two big snows. However, the coastal storms that do develop off this jet stream will tend to start in Virginia or North Carolina. Even if it is mostly snow for us, they will have a short runway as they move northeast to develop heavy precipitation. These are called Miller B nor’easters.
The sheer number of storms give us a good chance for a few “bigger” snows of 4 to 8 inches. Without the long runway of a storm developing off Georgia or Florida – Miller A – a storm that really fills up your ruler will be hard to come by.
I expect more than the usual number of tidal-flooding and beach-erosion days. Most of these should be minor to perhaps moderate issues. With the currently weakened beaches in some locations, this will bring worse than usual impacts. The good news is that the New Jersey Department of Environment Protection does believe the sand that was eroded will return by natural processes next spring.
It won’t repair the cliffs of beaches seen along the shore. It’ll only fill in the erosion on the more gently sloping sand.
Being a citizen scientist, for cheap: The Community Collaborate Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) is the nation’s largest group of volunteers in the weather community. Each day, more than 200 people in New Jersey and thousands across the United States report on how much precipitation they receive.
For $50 up front (to purchase the rain gauge), your observations will be used by many in the weather community. I look at this constantly during storms and would love to see what you have at your home. In fact, New Jersey’s official state record for most yearly precipitation is from a CoCoRaHS gauge.
Email joe@cupajoe.live with any questions. We hope to see your reports this winter!